NFL First Thoughts: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams will be playing lots of games from behind in 2023.
Below is a transcript from The Simple Handicap podcast (listen here), presented by Right Angle Sports. We’ll be doing a first-look preview of all 32 NFL teams, followed by more complete team previews prior to the season. Interested in signing up for the RAS NFL service? Join here.
The Rams, from a week-to-week betting perspective, could be a very enticing over bet. Let’s talk about why.
First, the Rams’ defense in 2023 is going to be 31st or 32nd when all is said and done. Outside of Aaron Donald, there’s zero noteworthy names on this defensive depth chart. This will inevitably lead to the Rams trailing in games, and it’s not a stretch to say that 63-64 percent of their snaps next season will be while facing a deficit.
Where this gets interesting is that Sean McVay, through his entire career, has essentially been three different coaches in one depending on the scoreboard. We know what he is when the game is close and competitive, a neutral game state. He has a very high pass rate, he plays at average pace snap to snap, and he runs almost exclusively three wide receiver sets. When he has a lead of a touchdown or more, his pass rate drops nearly 20 percent, he runs a ton on early downs, becomes very predictable, and he slows his team down to one of the slowest rates snap to snap. When he is trailing by a touchdown or more, especially so in the second half, McVay has one of the highest pass rates in the NFL, one of the quickest paces, and is one of the most aggressive down field play callers that there is.
This will be McVay’s worst defense by a mile. If this holds true, and there’s not some wild increase in talent or hidden depth that we’re not seeing, we will probably see McVay play at a deficit more than any other time in his career as a play caller. That is going to mean we’ll see a very different style of play, on a more consistent basis, than we’ve ever seen from him. McVay has been the play caller on a lot of really good teams, including a Super Bowl winning team. But this is going to be the worst. It’s going to force those trailing tendencies into the forefront.
Where this gets interesting is Matthew Stafford’s elbow is reported to be night and day better than it was a year ago. When he was healthy last season, just 8 percent of his passes were considered deep throws, the lowest rate of his entire career. If you remember back to what he was with the Lions, it was a guy who could push the ball downfield, especially when trailing, and accumulate a ton of garbage-time points. We know Stafford is a different QB now than he was with Detroit—his current limitations, including with his elbow—will make that be the case. But if you get significantly more from him than you did a season ago, the Rams are very likely to play more than six of their games over the posted total like they did in 2022.
The Rams will see the return of Cooper Kupp. They have Van Jefferson. Then they have Ben Skowronek, a versatile piece, who is more of an 11.5-type personnel guy (discussed previously in the Bills episode.) This offense could go to more two-TE sets, or two true tight ends. We might see fewer three wide receiver sets. That makes sense given the limitations of the offensive line. Usually when throwing from two TE sets, you’re taking deeper shots downfield. The depth of target tends to be deeper than with three-WR sets.
Add it all up—terrible defense, a coach that plays faster and calls plays more aggressively from behind, the improving health of the quarterback, the return of an elite receiver, the likely change in personnel groupings and potentially more shots down field—and the Rams could be an intriguing over team in 2023.