Below is a transcript from The Simple Handicap podcast (listen here), presented by Right Angle Sports. We’ll be doing a first-look preview of all 32 NFL teams, followed by more complete team previews prior to the season. Interested in signing up for the RAS NFL service? Join here.
If you follow the NFL or look at stats websites, you’ve probably heard about numbered-personnel groupings—11 personnel, 12 personnel, and so on. You’ve seen it, you’ve heard it. Well, Bills GM Brandon Beane is calling his offense this year an 11.5 personnel. It’s one running back, and half a tight end who is also a wide receiver. That, of course, refers to Dalton Kincaid, who the Bills drafted in the first round. He’s expected to be a versatile tight end that the league has never seen before. He can be a wide receiver, he can be a tight end, he can contribute in run blocking. He’s being made out to be a transformative weapon in the Bills offense that’s going to change everything for them.
However, tight ends coming into the NFL tend to be slower developing than other positions. Time will tell with Kincaid. But regardless, what the Bills’ offense is going to be in 2023 is better reflected elsewhere. It is a widespread fundamental change that we are going to see.
All of you will remember how the Bills’ season ended last year, with them struggling to move the football in the snow against the Bengals in the AFC Divisional Round. Isaiah McKenzie recently joined the Happy Hour Podcast, and he started to talk about the Bills-Bengals game. He said the snow had a lot to do with the outcome, and observed that the Bengals’ simple routes were superior to the Bills’ routes, which were often further down field and involved curls, lateral movement, and so on. McKenzie said the game would have been much different if the game were played in a dome.
It’s an interesting comment that frames the reshaping of this offense. Josh Allen was third last year in intended air yards, which is how far down field he is trying to push the football, and he was second in the league in completed air yards. Everything for the Bills offense last year became about the big play. When they were forced into situations like what they faced against the Bengals, it became a bit challenging. So, wisely, the Bills’ staff recognized this problem and realized they must change going forward. So they drafted Kincaid. Then they added a few new wide receivers, a few new running backs, and they made changes at offensive guard, from lighter guards to better run-blocking guards. The Bills haven’t had a great running game outside of Allen in recent years.
Why is this shift happening beyond the basics of giving the Bills a change of pace? If you look at 12 personnel league wide, when you have multiple tight ends on the field, yards-per-attempt is more than 1 yard greater; and success rate is more than 5 percent higher. It’s a much more efficient way of throwing the football. It’s something teams should be doing more of. Last year, the Bills ran the second-fewest plays in the league with two tight ends on the field. Everything they did was primarily out of three wide receiver sets. Not only is it predictable, but it also forces the Bills to be more one-dimensional on offense.
But now, with this clear shift coming that’s been communicated by Beane and confirmed by OC Ken Dorsey, you can see how the Bills are going to become much different on offense in 2023. The question is, does this click right away, and is this something that makes Allen more effective? Or, are the short throws that he struggled with at the end of last season, and the accuracy issues that plagued him early in his career, likely to return? That’s unclear. What is clear is that we’ll see an increased run rate for the Bills, an increased usage of two tight end sets, and we’re going to see a lot fewer deep shots that are forced on a game-to-game basis in favor of a more methodical approach.