Below is a transcript from The Simple Handicap podcast (listen here), presented by Right Angle Sports. We’ll be doing a first-look preview of all 32 NFL teams, followed by more complete team previews prior to the season. Interested in signing up for the RAS NFL service? Join here.
Let’s discuss Dave Canales, the Tampa Bay Bucs’ first-year offensive coordinator. He takes over a team that will go through a lot of change and look a lot different in 2023. Tom Brady is out, and Baker Mayfield is the likely opening-week starter. This team will go from the “No Risk It, No Biscuit” approach they've had the last few years—where they were 2nd in pass rate, 30th in running—to a team that is going to run the ball a whole lot more.
Canales arrives in Tampa after working in the Seahawks system for 13 years under Pete Carroll. He was on the quarterbacking side from a coaching perspective and was in Seattle for the duration of the Russell Wilson era. Seattle was often a team that people wanted to see throw more. They were antiquated in their approach. There was a lot of running, and while they tried to create explosive plays, they didn’t necessarily do it in the most efficient way from a play calling perspective. Unfortunately, with Canales being a first-time offensive coordinator, we typically see guys who come from systems like Seattle carrying it over.
A recent article discussed how the quarterback position in a Canales offense is “deemphasized.” He specifically had a quote that was concerning, where he said he wouldn’t wait around to pick a starting quarterback, because the guys they have on the roster are interchangeable. When you’re talking about interchanging Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, rather than building a system around them, that’s not creating an overly optimistic outlook for the what the Bucs’ offense might look like in 2023.
Every indication suggests we’re going to see the Bucs run an offensive system that reflects past Seahawks teams. There’s also reason to believe that fits well under coach Todd Bowles, who will have a lot more say with the offense now that Tom Brady has retired. Bowles shouldn’t be a head coach. He’s a much better defensive coordinator. With him now likely to have more say over the direction of the offense, there’s a strong chance he’ll approve of a run-heavy approach.
Now, there’s some very good receivers on this team. You can probably expect a few of them to have big statistical seasons if the Bucs are trailing in a lot of games. But it’s hard to imagine this team, with the expected offensive direction and roster, getting things to click early and overcoming the departure of Brady. There are simply far more questions than answers with this offense.