NFL First Thoughts: San Francisco 49ers
Expect a more aggressive, potentially faster, 49ers offense this year.
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The recent news is that Brock Purdy is ahead of schedule with his elbow injury. There was an update Monday that said he is continuing to progress. Everyone in and around the 49ers seems to think Purdy will be the opening-week starting quarterback.
What we’re going to see from the 49ers in 2023 is a lot more aggression. There’s been hints at this in articles the last two to three weeks. Insiders that watch the team have all suggested this will happen. The 49ers have always been an efficient offense, but what people may not realize in watching them the last number of seasons year after year after year, is that they’re continuously among the top 5 slowest teams in the NFL in terms of time between snaps. They play extremely slow, extremely methodical at the line. What people may also not realize is that for the last three seasons combined, there’s a stat that looks at win probability added based on coaching decisions, which is a good way of looking at third- or fourth downs, what the coaches do at specific yard lines throughout the field. Basically, it’s a way to look at which coaches make favorable decisions in terms of helping the over or the under.
Shanahan is not above average in that category. He is one of the 10 worst coaches in this regard. So he’s renowned as as an offensive genius, and he definitely is, but when it comes to key decisions that really impact scoring, he’s been passive the last three seasons. But all of these reports suggest that might change along with pace.
The reason is that Purdy instilled a lot of confidence in the 49ers down the stretch last year. Points per game went from 21.5 before Purdy took over to more than 30, which was a huge jump. The players around Purdy love him. He’s been labeled a fantastic leader on and off the field. There’s a lot of continuity there. Then at the skill positions, Christian McCaffrey is back and healthy. The skill position guys, basically all the receivers are coming back, all entering their second season with Purdy. These are 49ers offenses that have undergone a lot of changes and uncertainty the last two to three seasons with Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance, all the injuries. This year, with Purdy ahead of schedule, all those other pieces are there. This is as connected a 49ers offense that we’ve seen in a very long time.
An interesting thing that also might contribute to increased aggression—and admittedly, we’re getting into the weeds here—is the current uncertainty the 49ers face at kicker. Robbie Gould left the team. He was 90 percent plus but didn’t have a massive leg. Who will take over for him is a question mark. With the likelihood of having a less reliable kicker, Shanahan may opt for a more aggressive 4th-down approach when the 49ers are in opponent territory mulling whether to go for it or settle for a field goal.