NFL First Thoughts: New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr finds perfect landing spot, but is his OC up to the task?
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The quarterback fit for Derek Carr is really, really good. This will be a natural fit. There was clear emphasis by the Saints coaching staff to get him acclimated quickly, and they went about it in a smart way.
The Saints brought in Jon Gruden to work with Carr in March. The two have been together for a period of time in the past, learned the West Coast offense. The Saints’ OC, Pete Carmichael, lives and breathes this system, and has for the last two decades. What Gruden ran, and what the Saints will run, is very similar.
Carr echoed this in offseason interviews and said the learning curve for him picking up this offense is minimal. Way less than most QBs face when switching teams. A lot of that had to do with Gruden.
The reason why it’s such a good fit for Carr, beyond knowing the system, is his playing style really fits. When you think about what Carr is, you’re probably picturing quick drops, short throws, a lot of accuracy. But that’s really what the West Coast offense is. When you think about what the Saints have been in recent seasons, you’re likely imagining an aging Drew Brees with very quick throws, short drops, getting the ball out quickly, and just being very efficient moving down the field. That’s what Carr is.
To put some numbers on this, let’s go back to the 2021 season, which was one of Carr’s best. It shows what his ceiling could be. He was 12th in adjusted net yards per attempt. That was right up there with Justin Herbert. His time per throw, when it was 2.5 seconds or less, which is really fast, he completed 80 percent of his passes. That was nearly half of all throws he had during the season. So he knows exactly what that system needs and how quickly you must get it out. He’s very comfortable making those decisions. Also in 2021, on throws of 9 yards or less, he had an adjusted completion percentage of 87.5 percent. That was second only to Patrick Mahomes.
Clearly, very good numbers when things go right.
When you look at the Saints offense, you can see reasons why it could work. Michael Thomas comes back. What his status will be is still a bit up in the air, but he’ll try to assume the No. 1 role to start. Chris Olave will be the No. 2 receiver. Those are two very dynamic receivers for Carr to work with. Then you’ve got Taysom Hill, who will mix in, there’s rumors he could play more tight end. So there’s lots of possibilities for what this offense could be.
However, there’s also ways where this could go wrong. If you look at two seasons ago, Carmichael did not want the OC job. He was the long-time assistant under former coach Sean Payton, but he wasn’t necessarily the guy who made the offense hum. That was Payton, long considered a great play caller.
When Payton left and Brees retired, Dennis Allen took over as coach. He had to convince Carmichael to take the job. Carmichael said openly that he didn’t want the role and that the Saints had to twist his arm to take the job. Which he did. Well, then you look at what the Saints did in 2022. It was incredibly underwhelming, albeit with quarterback uncertainty. Nonetheless, it was a big step backward for the Saints overall. Some couldn’t understand this past offseason why Carmichael kept the job. But it’s largely due to his experience, the endorsement he gets from Allen and others in the franchise. They’re essentially keeping him because he’s always been there.
When you think about Gruden, an outside guy needing to come in to “install the offense,” to essentially help Carmichael, you kind of start to wonder if Carmichael, the play caller, is going to be the right guy to make all of this work. So that’s the concern for the Saints. We won’t know the answer until we see it, but for all the optimism around Carr and this offense, you’ve got a guy leading the offense who didn’t want the job, who didn’t perform well in the job, and whose chops as a lead play caller are in question.
In 2023, the Saints have some intrigue, but certainly lots of question marks as well.