NFL First Thoughts: Minnesota Vikings
New DC Brian Flores expects to lead a very aggressive minded defense.
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Kevin O’Connell had a willingness to keep the foot on the gas last year, even as the Vikings played in a lot of close games. It’s a really big difference compared to Mike Zimmer, his predecessor, who often played conservative with a lead.
In the draft, O’Connell added a wide receiver; and he seems to have an apparent disregard for the running game. We saw a spike in pass rate, aggression and offense last year, and it seems that will continue in 2023. Where the Vikings get really interesting though is on the defensive side. There are going to be enormous changes. We’re going to see a very different Vikings defense.
But not in a good way.
Brian Flores comes in as the defensive coordinator. And you think about what Ed Donatell was last year, it was the same scheme, with the same personnel on the field, giving defenses the same look every time. It was as basic and vanilla a scheme as you could have. The Vikings tried to keep everything in front of them, were incredibly conservative, lots of two-deep safety looks, zone coverage. It was just soft.
But Flores has been all about aggression. A couple days into OTA’s, there’s already linemen on both sides of the ball who say it’s out of control. They’re seeing stuff in June that you typically don’t see until the regular season. It’s just pressure, pressure, pressure. So you’re going to have this Vikings defense go from the second-lowest rate of Cover 0, and one of the lowest rates at sending six or more rushers last year, to a team that’s probably going to rank in the top 5 in both categories under Flores.
Can the defensive backs and corners hold up? They’ll be put in disadvantageous situations. If you look at the depth chart in the secondary, there’s really nobody who is proven in the defensive backfield. So it’s a big difference for Flores compared to who he’s had on defense at prior stops. He takes over this unit with such a drastic change, not only do these guys have to go through it, but it’s unclear who is talented enough to help execute this new defensive style.
One Vikings observer noted that he thinks the Vikings are going to try to win games 40-30 this year. They’re going to try to outscore opponents, gamble a ton on defense, and see what they can get away with. So it’s going to be boom-or-bust. You can see how this offense, which finished average in EPA/play, could potentially improve. And then defensively, because they played so soft, there was a big difference between their EPA and success rate. Those numbers should match up a bit closer this year, and there will be a wide range of outcomes for this defense. Flores has a great reputation, but the personnel might not match his scheme.