NFL First Thoughts: Kansas City Chiefs
For the first time in his career, Patrick Mahomes might have a top 10 defense.
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Let’s start off with a stat. This was posted two weeks ago by KCSN. Quarterback Win-Loss record when an opposing team scores 28 or more points, including the postseason:
Josh Allen 5-10
Lamar Jackson 4-10
Aaron Rodgers 17-46
Justin Herbert 5-16
Joe Burrow 2-8
Tom Brady 20-33
Patrick Mahomes 17-13
Think about that for a minute. We just talked about many of the elite QBs over the last decade or so. All of these QBs are way below .500 when their opponent scores 28-plus points. It makes sense. When you play a team that scores four or more TDs, you probably won’t win many of those games.
But Patrick Mahomes does.
Mahomes has been a starter since 2018. He’s faced this situation 30 times. There’s been a need for KC’s offense to perform very well throughout his tenure because one out of every three times Mahomes has taken the field, he’s needed to score more than 28 points to win.
A lot of this comes down to the defenses the Chiefs have had. If we look at EPA/play since 2019, KC has ranked 18th, 19th, 23rd and 15th. In his career, Mahomes has had just one defense that’s rated out as above average. This year has the chance to be significantly different. In aggregate rankings, the Chiefs’ D-Line is anywhere between 12th and 15th; and the secondary is anywhere from 6th to 9th. This is as highly rated a Chiefs defense that we’ve seen in many years from a personnel standpoint.
The Chiefs have hit home runs with their defensive backs the last couple drafts. They’ve added key veterans when necessary. Steve Spagnuolo has been able to make things work, and he’s incredibly optimistic about the 2023 season as well.
In a recent interview, Spagnuolo said he felt the entire secondary was “light years ahead” of where they were at this time last year. “They feel it, it’s different, they’re confident, the first day we went out there for a walkthrough, the communication, and I’m including Justin Reid in that … all of these guys, verbally, physically different than where they were a year ago.”
You might remember, the big question for KC last year was all their defensive rookies: Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson. All of those guys were huge question marks but then contributed to the best KC defense in recent memory. Now all the key parts return, and this is a defense and a secondary that is projected to get even better.
If the defense is sorted out—if it’s a potential strength rather than a potential weakness—then pretty much all the questions you could have about the Chiefs are all pretty much gone. Yes, you can nitpick the wide receiver situation. But we did that last year after the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill, and Mahomes responded with an MVP season.
The Chiefs look about as good as they’ve ever been.