Below is a transcript from The Simple Handicap podcast (listen here), presented by Right Angle Sports. We’ll be doing a first-look preview of all 32 NFL teams, followed by more complete team previews prior to the season. Interested in signing up for the RAS NFL service? Join here.
Why do people expect another jump from the Jaguars in 2023?
Trevor Lawrence’s passer rating from Year 1 to Year 2 increased more than any other quarterback in NFL history. There’s never been a bigger leap. The reason was absolutely the change in head coach from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson.
The Jaguars, as an offense, were eighth in EPA/play last year. If you list the teams from 1-to-32 in your head, how much higher than 8th would you put the Jags offense on your list for 2023? Are they going to get to fifth? Fourth? A lot of people would argue against that, but let’s say they do for argument’s sake. Would a leap of three spots on offense lead to a massive improvement for the Jags?
The same thing exists on defense. The Jaguars finished 12th in EPA/play. It was a phenomenal year for their unit. When you look at the aggregated rankings on various preview sites, so far everyone has Jacksonville’s defensive line at 20th; the secondary is right around 23rd. Last year wasn’t all that different. But you got a terrific performance from the Jaguars’ defensive unit all season long in 2022. This year, again, you have positional groupings at each level of the defense that are average or worse. How much better than 12th can they actually be?
This is the AFC’s version of the Lions. Yes, last year was exciting. Yes, last year was drastically different than what we’ve seen in many years. But everything went right for them, and they played in a weak division.
We have to put in context what we’re asking for in terms of improvement. Last year was a historic leap forward for Jacksonville. They had a big comeback against the Chargers in the playoff game, everything was great. But are they really going to be better on offense? They lost their best O-Lineman. They get Calvin Ridley back after a year suspension. But that’s about it. They have one top-32 level receiver.
Jacksonville is now priced at 9.5 wins, heavily shaded to the over, and some places are at 10 wins and shaded under. The difference between nine wins or 11 or 12 wins is enormous. And it requires drastic change. There just isn’t enough change with the Jaguars, and the schedule in 2023 will be more difficult. It’s a huge ask. It sure seems like a lot more can go wrong than can go right relative to expectations.