NFL First Thoughts: Green Bay Packers
Will LaFleur's offense operate at faster pace in the post Aaron Rodgers era?
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If you examine all active NFL coaches—the teams they've coached and all the quarterbacks they've had as their starters in the past—you'll find that the two slowest in terms of time per snap are Matt LaFleur and Mike McCarthy. LaFleur is the slowest active coach to call plays, and McCarthy, over his tenure, is a full two seconds slower. What do they have in common? Both spent a considerable amount of time with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback.
As Packers coach, McCarthy was one of the slowest operating offenses in the league. In his first year in Dallas, without Rodgers, McCarthy led the Cowboys to be the fastest team in the NFL snap to snap. This begs the question: Is Rodgers the reason for LaFleur being the slowest year after year? Or is it because LaFleur uses too much pre-snap motion and that slows down the offense? That’s a question we’ll get an answer to very early in 2023. It could have a profound impact on Packers’ totals.
One point of reference is looking at QB Jordan Love’s play at Utah State. While it’s difficult to compare college and pro due to scheme differences, in his last year at Utah State when Love was at his best, they ran the 23rd most plays in the nation. Love is a quarterback who has operated in an up-tempo system. Now that he takes over for Rodgers after years of sitting behind him, you have to wonder if this is a team that will decide to go more fast-paced.
Why this is going to have such a big impact is because if you look at the Packers’ totals from last year, the average closing line was in the lower 40s. It was less than the league average of 45. But Rodgers was fairly efficient at moving this glacially paced offense. If you suddenly take away this efficiency, as everyone expects, and if LaFleur continues to use excessive rates of motion that slows things down, as everyone expects, then you’re going to see these totals come down.
But if Rodgers is in fact the reason the reason the Packers have been so slow, and it allows LaFleur to call the plays and get them off quickly, then perhaps they could make a significant jump up in pace?
Green Bay’s Week 1 total is adjusted down from last year. If this potential increase in plays per game materializes, it could help make up for the drop-off in efficiency from Rodgers to Love. If that happens, the Packers could be an enticing over team in the early part of the season.