NFL First Thoughts: Denver Broncos
Can Sean Payton squeeze whatever is left out of Russell Wilson?
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It’s obvious at this point that Russell Wilson was given far too much reign over Denver’s offense last year. From his first Broncos press conference, to the offseason that featured insufferable commercials, to his own personal coach following him around the team facility, to him having his own office, there’s no shortage of items to criticize him for. That was really on Nathaniel Hackett and how he handled his job as coach of the Broncos.
Going into last season, you had a very difficult offense to learn. There were installation issues, quirky end-game scenarios the first few games of the season. It was all a disaster. And Wilson made it worse with all his corny theatrics. Everything about last year was a complete mess.
This year, we’re actually hearing very little. Sean Payton took over in mid February as the head coach, and he’s gone out of his way to keep things very tight and quiet. What we do know is there are changes coming that will help Wilson and maximize the offense’s potential to be effective.
First, in the opening press conference, Payton said no more personal coach for Wilson. He said he will use the Broncos’ coaches in the facility and that is that. Wilson will go from having total control last year, to merely being the quarterback, which is the way it should be. From Payton’s tenure with the Saints, we know you’ll get an effective game plan week to week. One of the best parts about betting on Payton when he was with the Saints, with Drew Brees at his fullest, was that you could trust he was going to do what he was saying in the press conference and game plan and tweak his scheme week to week to attack opponent weaknesses.
Another thing we know about Payton is he’ll install a more consistent and traditional ground game to help Wilson out. Toward the latter six or seven years of his time with the Saints, as Brees started to decline, we saw Alvin Kamara brought into the fold, Taysom Hill, and multiple backs coming in and out. Payton utilized multiple backs and found a way to produce an efficient ground game. That will help Wilson a ton. Last year, Wilson had so much control over the offense, calling the plays, he was struggling with checks at the line of scrimmage, crumbling to pressure, adjusting to reads, and so on. Payton will take a lot of things off Wilson’s shoulders.
Something else that could be a natural fit is the route running ability of Jerry Jeudy. If you think back to Michael Thomas, his route tree consisted of choice routes, lots of stuff on the weak side. It’s similar to what we saw from Jeudy last year in what was a breakout season for him. He was getting moved around in various formations, he was often isolated on one side, and was very effective. The upgrade in play caller/play designer, from Hackett to Payton, will lead to a big season for Jeudy.
Last year, the Wilson/Hackett offense was league average in pass rate. This year, you’ll likely see the pass rate go down, and will also see Wilson get the ball out quicker. He’ll have more guys open in space short and underneath, and it will be on him to make those throws. It’s not what he’s known for, so it will be an adjustment, but it will put him in a better position compared to last season.
These are the things Payton will try in 2023 to improve the Broncos offense. If he can’t fix Russ, then rest assured, Russ is probably cooked.