NFL First Thoughts: Chicago Bears
Most expect QB Justin Fields to take a big step forward in 2023. Will he?
Below is a transcript from The Simple Handicap podcast (listen here), presented by Right Angle Sports. We’ll be doing a first-look preview of all 32 NFL teams, followed by more complete team previews prior to the season. Interested in signing up for the RAS NFL service? Join here.
The Chicago Bears are a team that few people are saying anything negative about. It’s actually incredible how a team that finished as poorly as they did last year, with the worst record in the NFL, has almost every comment about them being positive or optimistic.
Let’s focus on the offense. Specifically, quarterback Justin Fields. If you do a Google or Twitter search on him, you will find no shortage of people speaking highly of his potential. You’ll see talk about Fields being able to take the next step as a passer. You’ll see Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy making comments about the passing game being ready to take off. You’ll see articles that describe Fields as being “night and day” different from where he was a year ago. On and on. It’s all positive.
The passing issues have been related to his decision making and unwillingness to put the ball down field. Fields ranked dead last in the NFL last year in aggression percentage. That’s a next-gen stat that looks at throws downfield where the defender is within one yard of the intended receiver. No quarterback in the entire NFL had a lower percentage of those throws than Fields. Out of all the articles you read about Fields, a lot of them focus on the fact that he didn’t have anybody who could separate at the end of their route. His deep threats were atrocious, these articles argue. And now, there’s widespread belief that new receiver DJ Moore will help solve this deficiency. (Moore was second in receptions of 20-plus yards last year.)
Everybody is assuming this is going to work.
There’s obviously going to be situations where the Fields-Moore connection has success and there’s big plays downfield. But how can you overlook Fields’ aggression percentage? It’s not something he’s shown. Never mind physically being able to do it, or having the decision-making ability to make those throws. He just hasn’t tried throwing those balls down field. It’s something you see with some quarterbacks, it can be a really hard thing to develop. It is likely misguided to assume, like many are, that the addition of Moore, combined with a beefed-up offensive line, will suddenly lead to Fields being able to make these kinds of throws.
If the Bears encourage these types of throws in 2023, and we start to see a different style of play from Fields than we saw last year, that leads to the next problem: No QB in the league held the ball longer per snap than he did at 3.5 seconds. If Fields is going to become the style of passer that all these articles expect him to be, where the offense will take a huge leap, he’s going to have to be roughly a second quicker on all these drop-backs. So not only is he going to have to start making these throws that he’s never tried to make, he’s also going to have to do so significantly quicker.
Now, the Bears won’t eliminate his legs from the equation, and certainly some of the time-per-snap slowness is because of how mobile he is and his ability to extend plays. You always see a longer time with mobile QBs. But even if you concede 0.25 seconds, he’s still exceptionally slow at getting rid of the ball. That will have to change.
In the end, it’s perfectly fine for people to be optimistic about the Bears this upcoming season. After posting the worst record in the league, things can only improve. But expecting a young QB to do things he’s never done before is a bigger leap of faith than most are acknowledging.