NFL First Thoughts: Arizona Cardinals
Can Jonathan Gannon's scheme help Arizona's D keep the points down?
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There’s almost nothing good to say about the Arizona Cardinals. This is going to be a bad team. If you’re a Cardinals fan, this is going to be ugly.
But there’s one potential positive: Jonathan Gannon’s tendencies on the defensive side could lead to betting opportunities.
When you look at roster rankings and positional unit breakdowns, the Cardinals’ defense is consistently rated among the very worst in the NFL. But these are based on personnel, and Gannon’s scheme might help neutralize the lack of talent. There’s a few specific things that stand out.
The easiest way to describe Gannon’s scheme is that it’s a poor man’s version of Vic Fangio’s system. Simply put, it’s the same look nearly every snap. The safeties play a little tighter to the line. They change coverages post-snap and try to confuse the opposing offense. The main priority is keeping everything in front and limiting explosive plays. Gannon will let you complete short, underneath passes all day. He wants to limit the deep stuff.
Under Vance Joseph the last few seasons, the Cardinals have been top 3 in blitz rate. They tried to bring a ton of pressure. That’s what Joseph does. He played a lot of man coverage, took a lot of gambles, tried to get pressure up front. Gannon, as DC of the Eagles, was very much the opposite.
In his first year, Gannon had the second-lowest blitz rate. Last year, with a loaded front 7, he was still well below average in blitz rate. He doesn’t like to bring a ton of pressure. Now, the Eagles had tons of big leads and opponents were more willing to throw because they had to. So the most relevant way to analyze Gannon’s scheme numbers wise is to use the last two years, sort by team defense, and look at intended “air yards against” in the first half of games.
To do that, we must run a query to find out how willing opponents were to throw the ball downfield against Gannon’s defense. Of the 64 defenses in the sample—32 defenses times two years—looking at “intended air yards against” in the first half, Gannon’s defense allowed the second fewest last year, ranking 63rd out of 64 teams in the sample. In his first year with the Eagles, he ranked 58th out of 64. So of the 64 defenses, Gannon-coached defenses ranked 58th and 63rd in air yards against. That shows you just how passive everything is that Gannon does when he’s calling plays on defense.
So, even though the Cardinals’ defensive talent is void of big names, you’re going to get a scheme where the secondary will play off, keeping everything in front, that should slow down opponents and prevent those big plays. When you combine that with how terrible the Cardinals will be on offense, and how likely run heavy they will be without Kyler Murray for the first half of the year—and without any standout wide receivers—this is a team that could be one of the best under bets in the first 4-8 weeks.