How a pro betting group gets value from pick services
Yes, it does happen. Some pick sellers provide clear value to the right clientele.
by Edward
At RAS, we spend $8,000-$12,000 per year on other pick services, and pay close attention to a lot of free content from pick sellers as well. It's one of the easiest decisions and most bang-for-buck investments we make.
That might be hard for many people to believe or comprehend. The "never buy picks" and "all services are scams" crowd is loud, large, and generally unopposed in the sports betting community.
I am not here to suggest that all services are good or that everyone should go out and buy picks. Far from it.
This piece is simply to demonstrate and shine light on the clear value that pick services can provide to clientele with the necessary skills and resources to utilize them.
Here are five ways we, as a professional betting group, use pick services:
1. Standard Following
If it's a service that we know is a long-term winner and/or will move the market, we'll usually just bet them blindly. We've either got an +EV bet, we're in at a price that we can easily get off with, or both. If it's a market we participate in, we can filter the play, optimize bet size, and evaluate the info and reasoning if a play includes a write-up. There is value in confirmation of our own opinions, and there is value in understanding why someone may have an opposing opinion. Ultimately, we're adding +EV volume in markets we already participate in and in others where we otherwise would have no action.
2. Market Timing
Knowing when someone who wins and/or influences the market is going to bet is a huge competitive advantage. Imagine if back in the day you could get a text from Billy Walters saying, "I will be making all CBB bets at 1:00pm PT, all real, no fakes." That is basically the type of info you get from some pick services. Let's be clear, this is priceless info. If we know a service that moves the market is releasing at a certain time, we'll try to identify plays of ours that we think that service is likely to be on or against. If it's something we think they might be on the same side of, we'll either take a small or full position before their release or at a minimum be ready to bet on those particular games when that service starts to release. We can also hold off on games where we think the service may release against our opinion. Being aware of the dynamics in a market you are betting into is absolutely critical, and buying services is one of the easiest access points to this type of info that exists.
3. Manipulation Opportunities
If a service happens to release something that is opposite of our opinion, this is a great opportunity to manipulate (fake) the line even higher. Particularly if it's a service whose opinion we don't value as highly as others in the given market or situation. In this case, we'll basically use the momentum of the line move at release to create more value on the other side. Again, market timing and knowledge of who, why, and when is pivotal information.
4. Education
If a service includes write-ups, we'll often learn new angles and approaches that long-term can potentially improve our own originating. There are other times when we'll obtain injury or other actionable info that we hadn't known about. We can often apply this to derivatives, props, and sides/totals that weren't even the original pick. Even if the handicapper is not a long term winner, an occasional nugget and the opportunity to filter bad plays and identify winning ones can make a subscription easily worth while. When a service doesn't include write-ups, we can still chart and learn from patterns and tendencies that will make us better.
5. Networking/Ability to ask questions
Everyone agrees networking is important in sports betting, but what about networking with pick sellers? Imagine if you could e-mail or DM a competing group before or after they bet something and ask questions. "Hey did you guys know so-and-so was out? What number did you make this game? Do you still like such-and-such bets at current prices?" With most services you can do just that. It's truly an invaluable and unique resource. Every person you meet in this space that is dedicated and serious about their work has some expertise and experience to offer. It could be math, it could be sources/info, domain expertise, or something you missed. In most cases, pick sellers have opinions on many more games than what they released. It all counts and has value. Having direct access to pick the brain of long-term winners and/or market influencers is well worth the price of a subscription by itself.
Bottom Line
Subscribing to pick services adds to our volume and ROI and makes us more informed bettors and originators, all for a fraction of what it would cost to recruit similarly dedicated talent and experience.
We aren't alone in this sentiment. Dozens of pros at the highest levels in the space have acknowledged they utilize pick services, likely for the same reasons described above.
When you work your tail off to originate and have a ton of resources and time invested, you can't just not know why a bunch of CFB totals moved 2-3 points on a Wednesday. You can't just be in the dark when a group is identifying over and underrated teams or discovering new angles and market inefficiencies for public consumption. For us, we don’t have a choice. We have to know.
You'd likely hear more pros talk about it, but it's a zero-sum game and it isn't in anyone's interest to. No one wants to help or add competition. For the same reason, I am not divulging which services we currently buy.
Final word
If you haven’t yet figured out how to utilize the picks of others, you should, free or otherwise, and I hope this article will help you approach that in ways you never thought of before.
Disclaimer on pick buying: The pick service industry is flooded with misrepresentation and outright scams, and there are many things to consider before buying picks, including bankroll, bet size, outs and ability to sustain/replenish them, money management, time commitments, betting acumen, and more.
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Great article