From caution to confidence: How We Built Our NFL Service
We didn’t rush. We didn’t guess. We built an NFL service we believe in.
For years, we avoided the NFL because we knew exactly what we were up against.
The NFL was, and still is, the most bet-on and scrutinized sport in the United States. The lines are easy to make and efficient, the sample size is always too small to even know if you're on the right path, the coverage is exhaustive, and the consensus among pros has long been clear: the NFL cannot be beaten. Your time is much better spent elsewhere. If you could beat the NFL, people used to say, you’d already be retired—living oceanfront on a beach somewhere. And for a long time, we agreed, and even dispensed the same advice to others.
But in 2017, we took the plunge. After nearly two decades of beating college football, we were confident that at least some of those edges would hold up in the NFL. Football is football after all.
We started cautiously in the preseason, where information—coaching habits, depth charts, playing time—matters more than numbers. It’s a chaotic market, but one we understood well. We've always thrived where information gaps create opportunity, and our early success confirmed what we suspected: with the right approach, preseason could be beaten. But we knew better than to confuse that with the regular season.
The next year, we pushed further—but stayed cautious, focusing on a small number of regular-season plays early in the year. In the seasons that followed, we steadily expanded before committing to full-season coverage in 2023.
The perception that the NFL is impossible to beat actually works to our advantage. Many sharps steer toward college football, college basketball, NHL, NBA, and the popular prop markets—all coinciding with the NFL season and often offering higher edges and more volume.
A fresh approach to efficient markets
It’s easy to gauge how efficient a market is: just find a market-leading book that welcomes winners (CRIS, BetOnline, Pinnacle, Circa) and check the limits. The higher the limits, the more efficient—and the harder—the market is to beat. High limits usually indicate that a market is drawing two-way action, plenty of recreational money, and/or sharp action on both sides.
NFL gameday sides typically have the highest limits of any U.S. sport—$50,000 to $100,000 or more at some books. This is the NFL people mean when they say it’s unbeatable. But what about betting Sunday night for the week ahead? Or totals on Monday or Tuesday morning? Or derivatives like 1st Quarter and 1st Half lines? These markets have much smaller limits—and are far more approachable and realistic for sharp bettors to attack.
Then factor in that, in a market like the NFL, books are much more welcoming to your action than if you were attacking props or college totals. With more books to choose from, you can shop prices at scale, find opportunities for reduced juice, and even secure lower spreads through exchanges or private matching.
Suddenly, your break-even rate drops from 52.38% to 51.22%—or even lower. It's easier to scale, books welcome your action instead of booting you, and you have far more opportunities to line shop.
What makes RAS different in the NFL
We’ve built a strong NFL team over time—a collaborative group of experienced decision-makers, each with a track record of beating major markets. We don’t rely on one model, one dataset, or one approach. Instead, we blend everything: models, subjective opinions, matchups, injuries, information, market movement, and more. No single factor dictates a play.
Throughout the process, we strive to identify what we call "easy decisions"—situations where multiple factors point to an obvious conclusion. But in the end, experienced judgment is often required, especially in markets like the NFL regular season and playoffs.
That’s what we’ve brought to the NFL: judgment—earned over decades, proven elsewhere, now applied here.
We’ve also focused on the parts of the NFL market that make the most sense for us. You won’t see us firing high-volume sides on gameday mornings, and we’re comfortable with lower volume, especially later in the season. We aim for quality over quantity—and it’s paid off.
Since launching our NFL service in 2017, we’ve put together eight straight winning seasons, and we’ve been successful across all subsets:
Preseason: 125-85-1 (59.52%)
Regular Season: 121-88-8 (57.89%)
Postseason: 5-3 (62.5%)
Our overall NFL record is built on smart, disciplined plays—and we’re proud that every one of those plays is tracked independently, against real, widely available lines.
Why RAS NFL is Worth It
There isn’t another product on the market that wins more consistently, beats the closing line more often, or offers the same level of transparency. We don’t just say we win—we show it. And we do it against the same lines you can bet into.
Our NFL service is available now for $995, covering every play from preseason through the Super Bowl. Early bird pricing is available until June 15.
We started out believing the NFL wasn’t worth the effort. Now, it’s become one of our strongest markets.
We invite you to join us.
