College Football Week 4 Preview Show [transcript]
Eddie Walls previews this week's CFB slate with host John Martin.
Below is a lightly edited transcript from the RAS College Football Preview Show, where Eddie Walls gives his take on select games for Week 4. You can watch the show, which airs weekly on Thursdays at 2 pm PT, by clicking here.
Best Bet: Virginia/Coastal Carolina under 55.5
Pretty simple kind of thing here. When I lose on a team a lot, I do a lot of work on that team. Last year, Coastal Carolina went and hired Tim Beck, who was an offensive coordinator at NC State, who didn’t have a lot of success but was able to figure out a way to win. I was betting overs because he had Grayson McCall and a bunch of wide receivers who were all conference guys, a great offensive line. And he was just costing me money left and right. If this guy was behind 10 points, he never sped up. Never sped up in the game one time. And I realized then that he was a very, very big under coach, and that has not carried over yet this year because he’s played an FCS, he’s played Jacksonville State. Then last week, he played Temple, and kind of showed who he was. Tony Elliott, the UVa coach, we came into the year thinking they would be a big over. If you remember, we released UVa/Wake over and it won. This is a different scenario. Wake Forest played fast enough to justify that number. This number is too high to justify that. Tony Elliott, also like Tim Beck, wants to run the ball, wants to control the clock. He has a QB who makes a lot of errors, so he likes to limit those errors. We saw that against Maryland last week where things can go awry pretty quickly, pretty fast. So yeah, under 56 or 55.5 is probably my best bet left on the board.
Illinois at Nebraska -7.5, 42.5
This is two teams that haven’t played anybody yet. I’m just being honest. I’d love to give Nebraska their flowers and say that this team is possibly going to win the Big Ten. It’s very easy to say that. They’ve upgraded at quarterback, they’ve upgraded wide receiver, their defense is going to be stellar under Matt Rhule, no way around that. But their best quality of win so far is Colorado, who I’m still not sold on. We know Colorado can beat up on Colorado State and control that kind of game. Illinois’ best win so far is against Kansas, who looked like a powerhouse coming into the year, but they lost their OC and their QB doesn’t look right. You think, wow, Illinois has an impressive win against Kansas. But then Kansas loses as 9-point favorites against UNLV. I think I like dogs in these kind of spots normally, I just think when you have two teams who haven’t played anybody and one team is getting a lot more credit than the other, they came in fairly close in my power ratings preseason — I think they were both low 30s, mid 30s, somewhere in there — this was probably about Nebraska -4 on neutral at that point. I’m probably getting a half point of value if I’m lucky here on the dog. Honestly, I thought Monday morning this game would go up before it would go down, so I’m a little fooled by the market. This game was always going to be under or pass for me. Both defenses are both ahead of their offenses in my opinion. Also, I have an OC at Nebraska who isn’t fond of scoring a lot of points. I just can’t get as low as 42.5, I think I was 43-44. That was never really on the board for me.
Miami FL -17 at South Florida, 65
At +17, I’m slightly interested in USF. Again, who has Miami beaten? I see them in some peoples’ top 5. That’s absolutely crazy. They’ve beaten Florida. Florida just lost at home in semi embarrassing fashion to Texas A&M. So are we giving them a ton of credit for beating Ball State, who I have 132nd in my power ratings? They still haven’t played a close game. USF played Alabama extremely close, you could make an argument they should have won that game, they fell apart late in the 4th quarter. The biggest issue I have is USF doesn’t pass it entirely well. If they did, I would play this over and feel really good about it. I think 17 is probably too much.
Kansas State -6.5 at BYU, 48
I don’t have a very good read on BYU. I knew they’d be a bit better this year. A lot of people forget they were a touchdown away from going to a bowl game last year and knocking Oklahoma State out of a Big 12 championship game. They threw the kitchen sink at them. I didn’t like their QB, but I really like the DC they got from Weber State. He had no players, but now he’s put it together masterfully. I can’t believe we’re talking about BYU as only 6.5-point underdogs but they’ve earned that. They’ve covered every single game, they’ve looked impressive. They shut down SMU, I don’t care who their QB was that game, they got nothing on that defense. They’re really big on both lines. What bothers me about BYU is they don’t have a running game, and they have to pass the ball with a QB who is iffy at times. I don’t have any issues with K-State’s pass defense. I know they didn’t look great against Tulane, but they probably didn’t expect a freshman QB to look that good. Look what they did against Arizona last week. I made this game K-state -7/-7.5. Nothing there for me on the side. The total, it’s a guessing game. Tough environment for K-State QB Avery Johnson, for sure. We all saw his clock issue at the end of the first half against Arizona last week. It’s just a pass for me.
Utah at Oklahoma State -2.5, 52.5
I’m in a bad spot, not going to lie. If Cam Rising doesn’t play, I’m pretty screwed. I’m on the over. It was a big play for me. Oklahoma State has a very underrated passing attack. Bowman is very experienced. He has four WR’s, two who are NFL talent. Great offensive line for both teams. I have a hard time believing Utah will grind this out and play slow. Especially not with them having the secondary they’re used to having. Kyle Whittingham likes to score, by the way. A lot of people think he’s an under coach, but he’s never really had a dynamic QB who stays healthy the last few years. So he’s been kind of under heavy. If you remember, he was never afraid in the Pac-12 to kind of punch it out with some of these teams. He’s a smart guy. He’s not going to lay back there. Especially, if God forbid he has a backup QB, but this year Utah had to go out and get guys in the secondary who are not Utah caliber. It’s a new era in college football, you can’t address every need in the transfer portal. It’s clear to me that pass defense could be a problem for them. So I had this game circled. We heard nothing but great reports on QB Rising. Then last night, on Wednesday night, when the market isn’t moving a whole lot, I’m getting alerts out of nowhere. “What’s going on with Rising?” And I’ve got nothing for you. Everyone is saying what should be said. I will say, Gundy in these spots at home, is almost undefeated in these spots. His track record is unbelievable. I do think Utah is the much more talented team. I think there’s ways they can attack Oklahoma State. I think Oklahoma State’s defense is very suspect. The move here [toward Oklahoma State] does make you wonder what’s going on.
Tennessee -7 at Oklahoma, 56.5
I bet a very small amount on Tennessee, and then I bet another small amount on them. So I probably have a half unit. My number gets lower and lower and lower on Oklahoma every week. My number just can’t be right. It’s just not possible that it’s right at this point. Oklahoma has put together two wins against teams that won’t make a bowl in Houston or Temple. Oklahoma could barely convert a 3rd-down conversion against Temple. They were lucky to survive Houston. Last week against Tulane, Tulane fell apart when it got close, otherwise that’s a closer game. If you like Tennessee, it’s probably 7 or less. Don’t go above 7, that’s for sure. If you like Oklahoma, there’s some talking points for you. The Tennessee QB, it’s his first road game. Their secondary was a humongous question all offseason long, this will be their first test against a semi capable QB with an NFL wide receiver. That said, I still like Tennessee, I am just not overly confident in them. This could be a good spot for an under. Let’s face it, Oklahoma is playing slower than in the past, and the defense has improved.
USC -5.5 at Michigan, 44
We don’t know what the floor is for Michigan. If you can’t move it on offense for a half against Arkansas State, and you can’t move it on Fresno State for a full game, and then you get blown out against Texas and only score with 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, then what do we feel confident about here? I’ll tell you a few positives for Michigan. They’re making a QB switch to Orji, which should help make them more efficient, because he’s more of a runner and they have an offensive line that’s big enough to probably push on USC a little bit. USC has overperformed, but against LSU who doesn’t have a defense whatsoever; and they beat up on Utah State in a game that was never competitive. A month ago, this was probably Michigan -2.5/-3. Now all of a sudden you’re looking at possibly USC -6 at kickoff. This feels like a huge overreaction. But do I want to step in front of the falling knife that is Michigan? No. Do I want to back USC and QB Miller Moss in his first road game at the Big House? No. I missed the number early in the week on the under, but I still have a hard time betting these USC unders. It’s a pass for me.
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