Betting Talk forum: What pro sports bettors are discussing this week
The new bettingtalk.com forum launched earlier this week. We're still in the process of onboarding users and it's a bit slow right now (we're asking all new members to post brief introductions), but over time, our hope is that it becomes a vibrant community where people can discuss sports betting topics of interest and to share/follow picks, including from RAS. We hope that you'll make browsing/posting on the forum a part of your daily routine.
Edward, Adam Chernoff and the rest of the RAS team expects to be active in the forum, especially during the slower summer months before football season starts in August.
A quick rundown of a few threads of interest are below.
Reaction to Telemachus on Circles Off
Telemachus Model joined the Circles Off podcast two weeks ago. Ed shared his comments on the episode, highlighting the part about judgment calls and how similar it is to the day-to-day at RAS.
Ed: “Great story to start about how he met Rufus and eventually joined his betting group. Then he talked about how one of the things that surprised him at the beginning was how many judgment calls had to be made each day in their process. Decisions that had no easy or verifiably correct answer.
This really hit home for me as I’ve never heard anyone talk about this in such context, and I immediately recognized what an important and undervalued skill it is in this space.
There is often a misconception that a model just spits out winners and everything is straightforward. If things go well, your model is great, if things go wrong, well you just have to tweak your model.
Aside from deciding if you should play something at all, which is a lot to begin with (are we missing anything, injuries, info, why hasn’t anyone else bet it yet, or why did someone bet the other way, etc.), you also have to decide how much to bet, how to bet it (1h, full game, team totals, all), is it worth trying to manipulate, where and with who to bet it with, when to bet it (weighing ROI vs bet size), what numbers if any to play through, and how all of these decisions may impact future opportunities (stuff you want to follow up on, etc.).”
What is needed to determine an edge?
In the “Ask A Pro” category, Adam asked Ed how he evaluates whether or not a potential partner might have an edge.
Adam: “You said the first question you ask people you’re considering working with (or buying from) is, “what gives you an edge?” and most do not have a good answer. For handicappers here reading, what is a good answer? Is there criteria you use to determine if someone has an edge? What qualifies?”
Ed: “If someone just says “track my stuff and you’ll see I am a winner”, or “look at my Betstamp record” and they give not even the slightest clue as to how or why they win, it still could be worth your attention, but truly evaluating those plays correctly could be a meticulous task. Are they just chasing steam? Copying someone else’s plays? Is it extreme/early market? Is it a soft book or rogue line? Are they stopping and starting (discovery year bias) with new accounts and names until getting the results they desire? Are there sample size issues? How does all of that play into the actual win/loss and CLV?
It’s much different if someone can explain (at least in basic terms) what it is they are doing or trying to do.
There are many ways to attack markets and win but some examples:
1. My model is simply good enough to beat openers, overnights, day of game, whatever else because I value certain things differently or better.
2. I am able to identify overrated/underrated teams better than the market because xyz.
3. I am able to identify undervalued over/under teams better than the market because xyz.
4. I beat the market to injury, weather, other news info because xyz.
5. I can price team situational derivatives (1h, 2h, team totals) better than the market because xyz.Granted people may not want to disclose all of the “xyz” part but they can display a basic understanding of these concepts without giving away their secret sauce.
From here I can likely determine if I have a chance to help this person get even better, and/or if this person can make us better.”
10 Sportsbooks declined to participate in roundtable discussion about limiting bettors
There was a roundtable discussion held in Massachusetts on Tuesday about sportsbooks limiting bettors. Ten sportsbooks elected to not participate. Members shared their perspective and frustration with the growing issue.
MikeRAS: “When I tell people who are not in our industry that winning gets you booted and losing and problem gambling gets you an all you can eat buffet, they are shocked and appalled. It really is predatory and sickening to think about.”
Jeff: “I actually watched this earlier and transcribed some of the better parts. despite the noted absences (only Bally’s had a representative on the roundtable), it was about as productive a conversation as you could hope for. Lots of talk about limiting and fairness. Capt Jack was the clear star of the roundtable and raised many excellent points. Jordan Maynard, the mass gaming commissioner, seemed to be highly receptive to what he was saying.”
Daily NFL Updates
The NFL service returned this week with the first release of the season on Wednesday.
In the forum, Adam is posting daily NFL team updates. You can locate them in the “Chernoff on NFL" category (click here).
Teams covered this week include the Eagles, Commanders and Patriots. There's 13 teams done in all so far (including the entire NFC South) and there will be more each day moving forward.
TravisRAS also posted a downloadable schedule which includes lines for every game all season and can be sorted by team. View the full sheet here.