Betting Talk forum: Most discussed threads right now

Football is close and BettingTalk forum continues to get busier and busier, here are the current popular threads

We are getting closer to football, and the bettingtalk.com forum is getting more and more active.

BettingTalk exclusive releases will continue through July and August. Members can expect 5+ releases each month.

Here is a quick rundown of a few threads of interest...

What is and is not factored into the line?

User “Chrismiken” posted the following in the “Ask a Pro” section,

“Question - Is a pitcher who is facing the same lineup in back to back games, something that is calculated in to the line? Thinking of today’s TB/NYY game. If you were looking for a time that Baz or Stroman would underperform, and you felt them facing the same lineup might be that opportunity, could there be value? Or is that something that is already added in?”

The thread had multiple replies, including one from “Ed-RAS” with some advice,

“I’m guessing it isn’t factored in, so the question becomes should it be? I’m not a baseball guy, but I think the first thing you’d do is go back and look at all the other times in history that has happened and how it affected performance. Then I’d wonder if it affected certain pitchers differently? Power pitchers, finesse pitchers, guys with multiple pitches or just a few. Could run into sample size issues, and then it gets to the point where if it’s not quantifiable, how do you use it? Some interesting questions that I don’t have the answers to.”

See all the replies and discussion here.

What do you think of my write-up?

A new user posted a write-up for an upcoming MLB game and asked for advice on what would make his write-up better.

“This will be the first time I have ever done a write up, so anyone who reads it feel free to offer any feedback. Also, I would love to hear anyone’s thoughts or opinions on my handicap. I always want to hear the other side and see what I may be missing.

#957 Over 8 -110 NYM/MIA - (I see 7.5 with extra juice but 8 seems pretty widely available)

For this game I believe the general thought is that Manaea should keep the Marlins bats in check and that Cabrera has a chance to be hit around a little by the Mets. Manaea has had a good year and has not given up a lot of runs in his last few starts, whereas Cabrera has seemed to struggle. I believe Cabrera could turn it around at some point, and I will be looking to play that angle at some point, I could not find a reason for today to be the day. As for Manaea, it is the opposite. I am figuring he will have a rough stretch at some point this season and I will take a chance on it tonight. The Marlins appear to have had some small success against him, not enough to make a big difference in the line, but enough that if they can replicate some of that success, it could help their output. And while Manaea has been pitching well, going on the road plus coming back from the all-star break, I could see a scenario where he doesn’t have his best. The last factor that I will add would simply be Cabrera. While I am expecting him to improve at some point, he could provide back up value if Manaea has great start. If Cabrera really struggles the Mets could come close to covering the over themselves.

Conclusion – I feel the market is suggesting Manaea will be strong, and I think it is worth a shot that he could struggle. And while Cabrera getting hit around seems implied, I feel the degree to which it could happen is a good buffer for the game to go over.”

User “KCKC” replied with,

“I appreciate the write up. My only advice is to provide some numbers to validate your opinions.”

User “Expos01” helped give directions on where to find numbers,

“Good luck with the over.

Here are some data sites I find effective in building my case toward a bet.

Fangraphs is great. Can really google any player page & search for signs of over or under performance (“Sean Manaea fangraphs”), bullpen performance, advanced team fielding, team hitting splits. Here is the link for team hitting splits you can sort through time, RHP/LHP.

Baseball Savant percentile rankings also could give you some more info on a pitcher.

Manaea for instance has an expected ERA almost a run higher than his current ERA
He ranks in just the 25th percentile in hard hit rate allowed yet has one of the lowest BABIP’s of his career & sports a career low FB/HR rate which is a red flag as a fly ball guy. So has been overperforming most would say to support your idea to play against him.

Obviously much more goes into it just my two cents to help with some additional ideas for a writeup. Good luck again. Hope the bet hits
My guess would be perhaps state things like how a team (Miami) hits vs the pitchers split (LHP in this case) and some data to support why you think Manaea is due for a rough stretch.”

See all of the other answers to the question here.

Bettors who should be in the SHOF, and also, TOUTS!

Ahead of BetBash next month, “Mike-RAS” shared a passionate take on who should be included in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame in reply to this tweet from Steve Fezzik.

https://x.com/FezzikSports/status/1815531459714961765

Mike’s reply included references to Alan Boston, Haralabos Voulgaris, Spanky, Bob Stoll and Ed Golden.

See Mike’s full reply here.

NFL Beat Reporter Preview Series

The Simple Handicap NFL Podcast returned to Apple and Spotify earlier this month. Each morning in July and August a team will be previewed. This season interviews with team beat writers, reporters and staff members are included with previews.

To date six episodes have aired covering New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Each morning a new thread is posted on BettingTalk with the episode and transcription.

Members can also access a public spreadsheet containing more than 100 (and counting) player, coach, reporter and coordinator quotes from offseason workouts and training camp. This sheet will update constantly throughout July and August. A great resource for props and early season betting.