Betting Talk forum: Most discussed threads right now
The BettingTalk forum continues to get busier and busier, here is what's being talked about right now
It continues to be a busy summer in the bettingtalk.com forum…
A quick rundown of a few threads of interest are below.
Summer Releases For Members at 55% Win Rate
Forum membership comes with access to exclusive releases.
Since launching on May 20th, there have been 20 releases sent out to forum members. The win rate on these picks is 55% which is right inline with the expectation.
There is a new dedicated release thread to follow games in progress with other members. This thread is a great place to discuss derivatives and play to prices.
More releases will be sent out this week.
CFL Write-Ups and Picks Thread
Adam Chernoff is posting a write-up for every CFL game during the summer. The continuously updating thread also includes important news, notes and updates from around the league. Elevated plays will be released for all BettingTalk members. Otherwise, write-ups come with a pick, or lean, when applicable.
Here was a write-up from this past weekend and an example of what to expect to find in the thread.
Brady Oliveria Over 54.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Oliveira closed 79.5 last week. There was another service that sent out his under. He came in way below. Now there has been a big adjustment and he is priced 24 yards less this week.
Couple things I like here to justify the over…
Post game vs Calgary, Brady said that he wants more carries (15-20 a game) and made it public vs the staff that he is being under utilized.
Offensive change
Streveler will start for Winnipeg. The Bombers offense now shifts to QB run first, rather than the dropback game of Collaros. There will be looks and play designs that open Oliveira up in ways that he never would be with Collaros under center. This is more difficult to defend than a traditional ground game and should open up space which BO has had little of this season.
Finally healthy
Oliveira missed much of camp and suffered an injury early in the season. His first full week of practice was last week leading into the Calgary game. This week during his media Brady Oliveira | July 3 - Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2:03 mark) he said that he is finally feeling healthy, and talked about how the slow start took a toll. The first week back in NFL props is typically an under/fade spot. Second week post adjustment is always a nice time to play a bump.
Desperation
My main worry here is that Augustine steals carries. I messaged someone around the Bombers and he said that O’Shea is going to definitely favor Oliveira with 0-5 on the line. Though Augustine showed and under performed in relief spots. Going out at home not giving BO carries would be surprising.
Main negative here is the strong Redblacks run defense. However, between the squeaky wheel comments, big price drop of 25 yards, healthy and offensive scheme change, the over here has upside.
Elihu’s New Book Is Out
Elihu Feustel’s new book, “Beyond the Odds” released last week.
As the war between sportsbooks and players escalates, bettors need new weapons and techniques. What sorts of stealthy behaviors should you use to bet more and have accounts last longer? How do you build an Answer Key to price derivatives? Or use efficient market theory to improve handicapping? How can you review a model (or profile a handicapper or player) and predict its profitability going forward? This book is for players serious about winning.
Members of the BettingTalk forum have the option to ask Elihu any questions they may have about the highly regarded new book in the dedicated thread.
NFL Updates Continue
Now that the holiday weekend has past, many bettors shift focus to the NFL season with the Hall of Fame Game just 23 days away.
This morning a full update on all 32 teams was posted.
This post and thread is a perfect refresher on the league and starting point for more in-depth summer prep and research.
Members can also access a public spreadsheet containing more than 100 (and counting) player, coach, reporter and coordinator quotes from offseason workouts. This sheet will update constantly throughout training camp and practices in July and August. A great resource for props and early season betting.