Betting Talk forum: Most discussed threads of the week
It was a busy week in the forum! Here is what you may have missed...
It was a busy week in the new bettingtalk.com forum!
A quick rundown of a few threads of interest are below.
WNBA and College Baseball releases continue
Forum membership comes with access to exclusive releases.
Since launching on May 20th, there have been 10 releases on WNBA and College Baseball. The record is 6-4 (+1.45 units).
More releases are expected this week.
CFL Write-Ups and Picks Thread
Adam Chernoff is posting a write-up for every CFL game during the summer. The continuously updating thread also includes important news, notes and updates from around the league. Elevated plays will be released for all BettingTalk members. Otherwise, write-ups come with a pick, or lean, when applicable.
Here was a write-up from this past weekend and an example of what to expect to find in the thread.
BC Lions -8.5 (-120)
Just saw Morley Scott, Elks PxP for CSIN report outside BC Place say that it is confirmed they left all starters and vets behind in Edmonton. HC Chris Jones said he wants to run through the entire defense with the new play caller, so lots of depth will be tested tonight. Lions should be confirmed shortly to play all starters. Sounds like for sure a quarter, possibly more. Think there is a good deal of added incentive for the Lions here too. New ownership is pushing sales in a big way and marketing this game pretty aggressive for preseason as a return to football. Upper deck not open, but current lower bowl sales are strong for preseason. Number currently between 8.5 (FD/SIA) and 9.5 (B99). Last regular season starters vs starters was 7.5 and 5.5 @ EDM. 10 seems like a better number here as a floor. Could probably argue higher based on win totals/futures pricing.
Asking the RAS Team about the Carolina Panthers
One of the biggest benefits forum members have is access to ask the RAS team questions. User “Kane” asked, “I know you guys are high on the Panthers this year, would you recommend a COY future on Canales, if they’re as good as you guys think they could be, then Canales has to be live to win the award, also what about a future on them to win their division, it’s not a tough division, might be worth a flyer?”
TravisRAS: “Have been similarly looking at derivatives and a way to play upside or get paid if truly right on Panthers opinion. Personally moreso than the coaching change I’m bullish on the Panthers from a divisional stand point. The numbers just didn’t catch up with how bad their schedule is. I like the win total a lot, but not convinced they win more than 8 games. So personally struggling with what to take.”
Adam: “The most basic handicap for COY is:
Will the team improve by 4+ wins?
Will the team make the playoffs?
The outlook we have on the Panthers definitely reflects 4+ win improvement. Big question is can they get the 7 seed? If they do, unless the Jets win 12/13 games, Canales should be in line for the COY award. Narratives are there with the #1 pick failing last year, first time HC, worst to first potential. I like it at 18/1 more than I do make/miss playoffs at 5/1, but not more than the win total. The leap needed from 7 wins to 9 wins is huge.
Jeff: “Within the NFC South, if New Orleans drops the opener to Carolina, then Dennis Allen could be in jeopardy of recreating Bill O’Brien’s 2020 season and getting fired in early October.
Next four games after Panthers opener:
at Dallas
vs Philly
at Falcons
at Chiefs”
Read the full answers from team members.
How do sharps seem to often know how other sharps are doing?
In the “Ask a Pro” section, Edward answered a popular question about how sharps are able to see the work of other sharps.
Ed-RAS: “I’ll start this category off with a question I have gotten a lot.
Other sharps frequently comment how they have seen “other groups work” and you’ll often hear that “most sharps lost” this week, or this month, or whatever it may be. So do they really know and how?
Spanky famously said “We see everything.”
Probably not everything, but best guess is they see a lot. There is an entire cottage industry of copying and spying on accounts. High level “top down” bettors will rely on technology, contacts, and special access to see who is betting what in real time. They will give accounts out to movers or groups under the guise of betting partners for the sole purpose of collecting info. Pro tip: If you are a sharp/winning bettor and have an account that is lasting an unusually long time, it’s most likely not because you found a clueless, friendly, or “solid” bookie. That information is being used by someone.”