Adam Chernoff appears on 'The Herd' to discuss NFL offseason storylines
Adam is bullish on the Jets, Panthers, Chiefs; worries about Steelers.
Adam Chernoff of RAS appeared on “The Herd” Thursday afternoon for a 10-minute segment discussing various NFL offseason topics.
Below is a lightly edited transcript of what he had to say.
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Q: The Jets are favored in 14 of 17 games this season. That’s crazy for a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs in forever. Adam, you’re bullish on the Jets this season. Let’s hear why.
Adam: “The floor is 11 wins. That 14 number that they might be favored in could be low when you consider that six of their first eight games on the schedule could skew toward very easy. The pressure on Aaron Rodgers and this team couldn’t be higher. Everybody’s job is on the line. Offense, defense, coaching staff. It’s all out there. It has to happen this season. I have full belief that it will. I want to look at Aaron Rodgers and say there hasn’t been a QB in the NFL off an injury with more personal motivation to prove he can still play well, especially at this age. It is as driven of an Aaron Rodgers as we’re going to see in his career. Match that up with a top-5 offense and a top-5 defense, the ceiling is very high for the Jets this year. It’s a tough thing to say, but this team is going to win the division and make some noise. (…) I’m comfortable that Rodgers’ injury is a leg injury rather than an arm injury. Arm strength isn’t an issue that he’s had. But comparing this to last year, with Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle, they got 7 wins out of this core that’s still there. The offensive line is upgraded this year, especially at the tackle position. I’m looking for Rodgers to distribute the ball, get it into space accurately, he has a pair of offensive POY candidates in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. You can’t overstate how loaded this Jets roster is. All the pieces are there for a big season.”
Q: The Falcons have become a flashpoint around the league for their process of giving Kirk Cousins $100 million guaranteed and then drafting Michael Penix in the top-10. Where do you stand on that, and are the Falcons a ‘bet on’ team for you this season?
Adam: “I think the Penix move was a good decision. I like it. I’m going to get criticized because for most people it was a clear overdraft. But I don’t agree. Look at the Falcons right now. They’ve got a very good roster full of young talent. They’re very much in win-now mode. If you’re thinking about the next five years for this team, they’re not going to be drafting nearly that high again if things play out the way they want with this new coaching staff. I think going out and getting the QB they wanted and knowing there were teams behind you that were trying to get him, sets you up to be in a very comfortable spot. We still don’t know if Cousins is 100 percent. Nobody seems to be questioning his health like they are with Rodgers. If I want to paint the parallels to the Falcons this year and the Jets last year, New York took all sorts of criticism for not having a backup QB in place that could carry the load if Rodgers went down. The Falcons went out and got Penix on a discount relative to what they could have found for other backup QBs, I think it was a good move. The criticism to me is unwarranted. I think this will be a good offense under Zac Robinson, a modern play caller the Falcons desperately need with these weapons.”
Q: The Steelers. I’m not high on them. Win total of 8.5. That feels very inflated. I think this is a 6-win team. Russell Wilson, Justin Fields. Two mid players. I don’t like it. Mike Tomlin probably leaving after this season. Are the Steelers a team you’ll look to fade?
Adam: “They are. I think it’s the first losing season for Mike Tomlin. I’m with you on that six-win prediction. I think 6 or 7 looks good. The schedule in the latter part, Week 11 and onward, is a disaster. If you’re banking on the Steelers being competitive again and having another winning season, you need this offense to click early. And I see nothing but trouble with that happening. First of all, the Steelers went outside the organization to hire Arthur Smith as OC. That’s uncharacteristic. They typically promote from within. Bringing in Russell Wilson, it’s great for the price, but how is this going to work? I don’t see it. Arthur Smith likes heavy personnel, lots of tight ends, lots of running backs. He attacks the middle of the field, something Wilson has not ever done in his career. He drops back, holds on to the ball, pushes it out wide. That’s something the Steelers don’t have, and I don’t think Smith is going to bring that out of the weapons he has. The Steelers have a lot of youth that they’ll have to get clicking early. I think the Steelers are in trouble. I think the offense will struggle, I think a six or seven-win season, and I think this might be it for Tomlin.”
Q: Let’s stay in the division. I think losing the defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, there might not be a bigger loss for any coach in the league other than Tampa. They added Derrick Henry. There’s no way this team is the No. 1 seed again, right? Ten wins for the Ravens?
Adam: “I think that’s fair. Mike Macdonald is changing the entire way the league coaches defense. That loss is enormous. They still have great talent at all levels on that defense, but they’re going with their third option at defensive coordinator, and it’s a big shift no matter how you look at it. Offensively, a lot of talk about Lamar and the weight and the change of stature and what he’s trying to get from it. Todd Monken, last week on a somewhat hidden podcast, said he wants Lamar to run less. It goes back to last year after the Titans game in London. Remember how ugly that got, when they were pushing to run less, especially within the red zone. I actually look at the Ravens, if there’s a defensive drop-off and they go more pass heavy, which they were incredibly efficient at doing last year, especially out of play action, in Year 2 of this Monken offense, they might throw a lot more than expected. They may turn out to be one of the higher scoring teams in the NFL. I think they finish top 5 scoring, score a ton of points. Look for overs. If there’s a defensive drop-off and you get a well-oiled second-year Monken offense with Lamar throwing a ton, that will be a scary offense. So a lot of high-scoring offense for the Ravens in 2024 and I think Lamar has his best passing year ever.”
Q: Kansas City. I’m kind of over the Chiefs. Two Super Bowls in a row. It’s not fatigue like with Brady and the Patriots, but we just need some newness there. I thought the 49ers had them in the Super Bowl. However, it’s been a very tumultuous offseason in KC with the kicker mouthing off, Rashee Rice getting arrested, Andy Reid having to talk to the media about this offense. It feels like a noisy offseason. They lose L’jarius Sneed who is an amazing cornerback. I see some drop off but I don’t know if you agree.
Adam: “I don’t. And I’ll add on to it. Mahomes is starting a coffee company, Kelce is throwing parties and music festivals. You have offensive linemen in trouble with the law. The Chiefs can’t escape the bad news cycle seemingly for the last two months of the offseason. However, the culture around this team is so strong. They just overcome it. The criticism of them last year, they didn’t have receivers. It didn’t matter, they figured it out. The criticism two seasons ago, they didn’t have a defense. It didn’t matter, they figured it out. They’re just able to overcome everything. Now with the schedule they have, playing every single day of the week beside Tuesday, is crazy to think about. But I think they’re as well equipped and as well positioned to overcome that with Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and just how well they game plan on a weekly basis. I don’t think any of this phases them in the regular season or postseason. I still think they’re far and away the best team in the AFC.”
Q: Let’s end with the hottest take. Obviously you and your group (Right Angle Sports) can move markets. The Carolina Panthers’ win total was 4.5 earlier this week. You guys single-handedly moved it beyond 5 to 5.5. The audience is very curious about this. What is there to love about Bryce Young & Co.
Adam: “At RAS, we’re all about the Panthers over this year. I think they’re a fringe NFC Wild Card team. Bryce Young is in a much better position with a modern coaching staff coming in led by Dave Canales. When you look at what Canales has done in his career, he helped Russell Wilson to his best passing year in Seattle, he led Geno Smith to his best season, and then last year he revived Baker Mayfield, another QB everybody wrote off. Bryce Young, very similar situation, he now has weapons around him, he has competent coaching. To me, this looks like the Jags in 2021 and 2022. You add Lawrence, he was in a bad coaching staff situation, expectations came way down after Year 1, and then Year 2 they make a playoff run. I think the Panthers, in a weak NFC South division, set up very similarly. I think it’s a great coaching staff and an organization that will compete for the last Wild Card spot in the NFC. Very bullish on the Panthers.”